E like me kā mākou e ʻike ai, ʻo "ʻeiwa gula a me ʻumi kālā" ʻo ia ka manawa kiʻekiʻe o ke kūʻai ʻana o nā kaʻa, akā ke hoʻomau nei ka ʻano o ka "kumu kumu" ma muli o ka laha ʻana o nā maʻi maʻi ma waho.Nui nā ʻoihana kaʻa a puni ka honua i koi ʻia e hōʻemi i ka hana ʻana a i ʻole e hoʻōki i ka hana ʻana mai ʻAukake a Kepakemapa.Ua hoʻololi hou ka ikehu hou "Rookies" i kā lākou mau manaʻo kūʻai aku no ka hapaha ʻekolu, e hoʻemi ana ka nui o nā kālepa o nā hale kūʻai 4S a me nā mea kūʻai kaʻa i ka wā "ʻeiwa gula" a "ʻaʻole hiki ke kūʻai ʻia nā kaʻa". o kekahi mau mea kuai a me na mea kuai kaa.
Ma luna o ke kahawai: Ua piʻi aʻe nā ʻāpana kaʻa i ka huhū loa
ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo nā kaʻa, nā mea kūʻai uila, nā lāʻau lapaʻau, nā LED a me nā mea pāʻani i kēia manawa he 360 mau laina, a aia ka nele o nā chips.ʻO ke kumu i kū mua ai ka "kaʻa nele o ka core" ʻo ia ka piʻi ʻana o nā pahu kaʻa i mea hoʻonāukiuki loa.
Ke hoʻoholo nei mai ka laina manawa, e ka mana o COVID-19, i ka hapaha mua o 2020, ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia nā haneli o nā hale kaʻa ma muli o ka hoʻokele paʻa ʻana, ka hapa o nā ʻāpana a me ka nele o nā hana.I ka hapalua ʻelua o ka makahiki, ua hoʻihoʻi hou ʻia ka mākeke kaʻa kaʻa honua, a ua hoʻihoʻi hou ke kūʻai aku o nā ʻano like ʻole, akā ua hoʻokomo ʻia ka mana hana nui o nā mea hana chip upstream i nā ʻoihana ʻē aʻe.I kēia manawa, ua hoʻopau ke kumuhana o ka "kaʻa kikoʻī kikoʻī chip" i ka ʻoihana holoʻokoʻa no ka manawa mua.
Ma nā ʻōlelo o nā ʻano kikoʻī, mai 2020 a 2021q1, ʻo nā chips i waho o ka waihona i hoʻohana ʻia ʻo MCU i loko o ka ESP (body electronic stability system) a me ka ECU (electronic control unit).I waena o lākou, ʻo nā mea hoʻolako ESP nui ʻo Bosch, ZF, Continental, Autoliv, Hitachi, Nisin, Wandu, Aisin, etc.
Eia nō naʻe, mai ka makahiki 2021q2, ka maʻi maʻi covid-19 ma Malaysia, ua koi ʻia nā ʻōpala a me nā mea kanu hoʻāʻo o nā hui chip multinational nui ma ka ʻāina e pani ʻia ma muli o ka maʻi maʻi, a ke hoʻomau nei ka pōʻino o ka honua o ka lako chip automotive.I kēia mau lā, ua laha ka hapa o nā pahu kaʻa mai MCU ma ESP / ECU i ka millimeter wave radar, sensors a me nā ʻāpana kūikawā ʻē aʻe.
Mai ka mākeke kiko, hōʻike ka ʻikepili i hoʻokuʻu ʻia e ka State Administration o ka mākaʻikaʻi mākeke a me ka hoʻokele ʻana ma lalo o ke kūlana o ka hoʻolako kaulike a me ka koi, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o nā mea kālepa chip kaʻa ma ke ʻano he 7% - 10%.Eia nō naʻe, ma muli o ka hapa nui o nā chips, ua hoʻonui ʻia ka nui o nā ʻāpana kaʻa i ka mākeke ma Huaqiang North ma mua o 10 mau manawa i ka makahiki.
Ma kēia ʻano, ua lawe hope ka mokuʻāina i ka haunaele mākeke politika!Ua hōʻike ʻia i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Kepakemapa ua hoʻopaʻi ʻia ʻekolu mau ʻoihana hoʻolaha chip kaʻa i ka huina o 2.5 miliona yuan e ka mokuʻāina o ka mokuʻāina no ka nānā ʻana i ka mākeke a me ka hoʻokele ʻana ma muli o ka hoʻonui ʻana i ke kumukūʻai o nā chips kaʻa.Ua hōʻike ʻia e kūʻai aku nā ʻoihana hoʻolaha ma luna nei i nā chips me ke kumukūʻai kūʻai ma lalo o 10 yuan ma ke kumu kūʻai kiʻekiʻe ma mua o 400 yuan, me ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o 40 mau manawa.
No laila, i ka manawa hea e hiki ai ke hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ka hemahema o ka chip kikoʻī kaʻa?ʻO ka ʻae ʻana o ka ʻoihana he paʻakikī ke hoʻoponopono piha i ka manawa pōkole.
Ua ʻōlelo ka China Automobile Industry Association i ʻAukake, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻopau koke ʻia ka hapa o ka chip honua i hana ʻia e nā mea hana kaʻa e hōʻemi i ka hana ʻana no ka mea ke hoʻomau nei ka maʻi ahulau ma nā wahi he nui o ka honua.
Wahi a ka wānana a Ihsmarkit, e hoʻomau ka hopena o ka hapa o ka chip i ka hana kaʻa a hiki i ka hapaha mua o 2022, a paʻa paha ka lako i ka hapaha lua o 2022, a hoʻomaka e hoʻōla i ka hapa lua o 2022.
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Infineon CEO Reinhard Ploss ma muli o ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o nā mea hana semiconductor a me ke koi kiʻekiʻe, manaʻo ʻia e piʻi nui nā kumukūʻai chip.Mai 2023 a 2024, hiki ke piʻi ka mākeke semiconductor, a e kū mai ka pilikia o ka oversupply.
Manaʻo ke poʻo o ka ʻoihana ʻAmelika ʻo Volkswagen ʻaʻole e hoʻi hou ka hana kaʻa US a hiki i ka hapa lua o 2022.
Midstream: "ka lima haki o ke kanaka ikaika" e hoʻoponopono i ka hopena o ka nalo ʻana
Ma lalo o ka hopena o ka hemahema o ka lako chip, nui nā ʻoihana kaʻa e "haʻi i ko lākou mau lima" e ola ai - ʻo ka koho maikaʻi loa ʻo ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka mea nui i ka hoʻolako ʻana i nā kumu hoʻohālike, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā kaʻa hou i hoʻopaʻa inoa ʻia a me ka ikaika hou kūʻai wela. nā kaʻa.Inā ʻaʻole kōkua, e hoʻemi ana ia i ka hana a hoʻōki i ka hana.Ma hope o nā mea a pau, "ʻoi aku ka nui o ke ola ma mua o kekahi mea".
(1) ʻO nā ʻoihana kaʻa kuʻuna, ua "wikiwiki loa ka hana maʻamau".Wahi a nā helu helu ʻole, mai ʻAukake a Sepatemaba, ʻo nā ʻoihana kaʻa i hoʻolaha i ka hoʻemi ʻana a me ka pani ʻana i ka wā pōkole:
Ua hoʻolaha ʻo Honda ma Sepatemaba 17 e manaʻo ʻia ʻo ka hoʻopuka kaʻa o kāna mau hale hana ma Iapana mai ʻAukake a Sepatemaba he 60% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka hoʻolālā kumu, a e hoʻemi ʻia ka huahana ma kahi o 30% i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ʻOkakopa.
Ua hoʻolaha ʻo Toyota i ʻAukake i kāna mau hale hana 14 ma Iapana e hoʻōki i ka hana ʻana i nā pae like ʻole ma muli o ka nele o ka chip i ʻAukake a me Kepakemapa, me ka manawa pani ʻoi loa o 11 mau lā.Manaʻo ʻia e hoʻemi ʻia ka hana kaʻa kaʻa honua a Toyota e 330000 i ʻOkakopa, e helu ana no 40% o ka hoʻolālā hana mua.
Ua hoʻolaha pū ʻo Subaru e hoʻonui ʻia ka manawa pani o kēia hale hana a me ka hale hana ʻo Yadao o Gunma production Institute (Taitian City, Gunma county) i Kepakemapa 22.
Eia kekahi, e hooki ʻo Suzuki i ka hana ʻana ma ka hale hana ʻo Hamamatsu (Hamamatsu City) ma Kepakemapa 20.
Ma kahi o Iapana, ua ho'ōki nā ʻoihana kaʻa i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, Kelemānia a me nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe i ka hana ʻana a i ʻole ka hōʻemi ʻana i ka hana.
Ma ka lā 2 o Kepakemapa i ka manawa kūloko, ua hoʻolaha ʻo General Motors he 8 o kāna mau mea kanu hui ʻAmelika ʻAmelika e hoʻokuʻu i ka hana ʻana i nā pule ʻelua e hiki mai ana ma muli o ka liʻiliʻi o nā chips, hōʻike ʻo AP.
Eia kekahi, ua hoʻolaha pū ʻo Ford Motor Company e hoʻopaneʻe ia i ka hana ʻana i nā kaʻa huki ma ka hale hui ma Kansas City i nā pule ʻelua e hiki mai ana, a e ʻoki nā hale kaʻa ʻelua ma Michigan a me Kentucky i kā lākou hoʻololi.
ʻO Skoda a me ka noho, nā lālā o Volkswagen, ua hoʻopuka ʻelua i nā ʻōlelo e ʻōlelo ana e hoʻōki kā lākou ʻoihana i ka hana ʻana ma muli o ka hapa o nā chips.Ma waena o lākou, e ho'ōki ka hale hana Skoda Czech i hoʻokahi pule ma ka hopena o Kepakemapa;E hoʻonui ʻia ka manawa pani o SIAT'S Spanish i 2022.
(2) ʻO nā kaʻa ikehu hou, ua pā mai ka ʻino "lack of core".
ʻOiai ke koʻikoʻi nei ka pilikia o ka "car core shortage", ua wela ke kūʻai aku i nā kaʻa ikehu hou i nā makahiki i hala iho nei a ua makemake pinepine ʻia e ke kapikala.
Wahi a ka ʻikepili mahina o China Automobile Industry Association, ʻo ka kūʻai ʻana o nā kaʻa kaʻa o Kina i ʻAukake he 1.799 miliona, ma lalo o 3.5% mahina ma ka mahina a me 17.8% makahiki-ma-makahiki.Eia nō naʻe, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka mākeke kaʻa kaʻa hou o Kina, a hoʻomau ka ulu ʻana a me ke kūʻai ʻana i ka mahina ma ka mahina a me ka makahiki.Ua ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hana a me ke kūʻai aku ma mua o 300000 no ka manawa mua, a hiki i kahi moʻolelo hou.
ʻO ka mea kupanaha, hiki koke mai ka "paʻi maka".
Ma Sepatemaba 20, ua hoʻolaha ka kaʻa maikaʻi ma muli o ke kaulana o covid-19 ma Malaysia, ua kāohi nui ʻia ka hana ʻana o nā chips kūikawā no nā mea hoʻolako radar millimeter wave o ka hui.No ka mea ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa o ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana o ka hāʻawi chip ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia, ke manaʻo nei ka ʻoihana ma kahi o 24500 mau kaʻa e hāʻawi ʻia i ke kolu o ka hapaha o 2021, hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 25000 a 26000 mau kaʻa i wānana mua ʻia.
ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻōlelo ʻo Weilai kaʻa, kahi hui alakaʻi ʻē aʻe ma waena o nā mea hana kaʻa kūloko hou, i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Kepakemapa ma muli o ka maopopo ʻole a me ka volatility o ka lako semiconductor, ke hoʻohaʻahaʻa nei ia i kāna wānana hoʻopuka no ka hapaha ʻekolu o kēia makahiki.Wahi a kāna wānana, hiki i ka hāʻawi kaʻa i ka hapakolu o kēia makahiki ma kahi o 225000 a 235000, haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka manaʻo mua o 230000 a 250000.
Ua hōʻike ʻia ʻo ke kaʻa maikaʻi loa, ʻo Weilai kaʻa a me Xiaopeng kaʻa ʻekolu alakaʻi hoʻomaka kaʻa uila ma Kina, e hoʻokūkū ana me Tesla, kahi mea hana kaʻa uila ʻAmelika, a me nā hui kūloko e like me Geely a me Great Wall Motors.
I kēia manawa ua hoʻohaʻahaʻa ka kaʻa kaʻa maikaʻi a me ka kaʻa Weilai i kā lākou mau manaʻo hoʻopuka Q3, e hōʻike ana ʻaʻole ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ke kūlana o nā kaʻa ikehu hou ma mua o ko lākou mau hoa.No ka hiki ke hana kaʻa, ʻo ka maʻi maʻi ka mea pilikia nui.
Ua ʻike ʻia he nui nā aupuni ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika i hele mai e kamaʻilio me Malaysia, me ka manaʻo e hiki iā Malaysia ke hāʻawi i ka mea nui i ka hoʻolako ʻana i nā ʻāpana kaʻa i kāna ʻoihana kaʻa ponoʻī.Ua kāhea aku nā luna nui o nā ʻoihana kaʻa Kina i ka mokuʻāina e hoʻonohonoho i kēia pilikia.
Ma lalo: "ʻaʻohe" ka hale kaʻa a "ʻaʻohe kaʻa o ka mea kūʻai aku"
ʻO ka "Core shortage" ua alakaʻi i ka hoʻemi ʻana o ka hana a me ka hoʻouna ʻana o nā mea hana midstream, ka hopena i ka hapa nui o ka waihona o nā ʻoihana kūʻai aku i lalo, a ua hoʻoulu i kekahi mau kaulahao i ka mākeke kaʻa honua.
ʻO ka mua ka emi ʻana o nā kūʻai.Wahi a ka ʻikepili o China Automobile Circulation Association, i hoʻopilikia ʻia e ka hapa o nā kaʻa kaʻa, ʻo ke kūʻai aku ʻana o ka mākeke kaʻa kaʻa kaʻa o Kina i hōʻea i 1453000 i ʻAukake 2021, kahi hoʻemi o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki he 14.7% a me ka emi o ka mahina ma ka mahina he 3.3. % i ʻAukake.
Wahi a ka ʻikepili i hoʻokuʻu ʻia e ka Hui ʻEulopa o nā mea hana kaʻa ma Sepatemaba 16, ua emi ka hoʻopaʻa inoa ʻana o nā kaʻa hou ma ʻEulopa e 24% a me 18% i kēlā me kēia makahiki ma Iulai a me ʻAukake i kēia makahiki, ʻo ia nā mahina ʻelua me ka ʻO ka emi nui loa mai ka hopena o ka pilikia hoʻokele waiwai o ka Euro i 2013.
ʻO ka lua, ʻo ka hale kaʻa mea kūʻai aku he "mea ʻole".Wahi a nā moʻolelo nūhou kūloko, ua hōʻike kekahi mau mea kūʻai aku mai ka hopena o Iulai, ua loaʻa ka hapa nui o nā hiʻohiʻona kaulana i ka ʻōnaehana DMS mea kūʻai aku, a mai ke kolu o ka hapaha, he nui nā kauoha kaʻa i hoʻolako ʻia i kekahi mau kaʻa. a ʻaʻohe kaʻa o kekahi mau kaʻa.
Eia kekahi, ua hōʻemi ʻia ka manawa kūʻai a me ke kūʻai aku o kekahi mau mea kūʻai aku ma kahi o 20 mau lā, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka waiwai olakino i ʻike ʻia ma ka ʻoihana no 45 mau lā.ʻO ia ke ʻano inā hoʻomau kēia kūlana, e hoʻoweliweli koʻikoʻi ia i ka hana o kēlā me kēia lā o nā mea kūʻai aku.
Ma hope mai, aia kahi hanana o ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai ma ka mākeke kaʻa.Ua ʻōlelo ka luna nui o kahi hale kūʻai 4S ma Beijing ma muli o ka liʻiliʻi o nā chips, liʻiliʻi ka nui o ka hana i kēia manawa, a pono pū kekahi mau kaʻa i nā kauoha.ʻAʻole nui ka waiwai o ka waihona, me ka piʻi awelika o 20000 yuan.
Aia kekahi hihia like.Ma ka mākeke kaʻa US, ma muli o ka lawa ʻole o ka lako kaʻa, ʻoi aku ka nui o ke kumukūʻai kūʻai aku o nā kaʻa US ma mua o $ 41000 i ʻAukake, kahi moʻolelo kiʻekiʻe.
ʻO ka mea hope loa, aia kahi hanana e kūʻai hou ai nā mea kūʻai aku kaʻa kaʻa i nā kaʻa i hoʻohana ʻia ma ke kumukūʻai invoice.Ua hōʻike ʻia i kēia manawa, ua hoʻomaka kekahi mau hale kūʻai 4S o nā ʻoihana kaʻa kaʻa ma Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Tianjin, Sichuan a me nā wahi ʻē aʻe i ka hana o ka hana hou ʻana i nā kaʻa i hoʻohana ʻia ma nā kumukūʻai tiketi.
Ua hoʻomaopopo ʻia ʻo ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o ka hana hou ʻana o nā kaʻa lua lima wale nō ke ʻano o kekahi mau mea kūʻai kaʻa nani.ʻAʻole i komo kekahi mau mea kūʻai kaʻa nani me nā kumu kaʻa kūpono a me nā kumukūʻai kaʻa hou makemake.Ua ʻōlelo kekahi mea kūʻai mea kūʻai aku ma mua o ka nele ʻana o ka chip, nui nā kumu hoʻohālike o nā hōʻailona makamae i loaʻa nā uku ma nā kumukūʻai terminal."ʻO ke kumukūʻai kaʻa kaʻa i nā makahiki ʻelua i hala ma mua o 15 mau helu.Ua hōʻiliʻili mākou e like me ke kumukūʻai invoice a kūʻai aku ia ma ke kumukūʻai alakaʻi o nā kaʻa hou, me ka loaʻa kālā ʻoi aku ma mua o 10000.
Ua ʻōlelo nā mea kūʻai aku ma luna nei e kū nei nā mea kūʻai aku i kekahi mau pilikia i ka hana hou ʻana i nā kaʻa i hoʻohana ʻia ma nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe.Inā nui ka nui o nā kaʻa a piʻi aʻe ka puka o nā kaʻa hou i ka wā pōkole, e hoʻopilikia ʻia ke kūʻai ʻana o nā kaʻa i hoʻohana ʻia.Inā ʻaʻole hiki ke kūʻai ʻia, e kūʻai ʻia nā kaʻa i hoʻohana ʻia i ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe ma ke kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Sep-23-2021